Economic Rebound is Expected to Recover in the 4 Quarter
Experts said on Friday that with the strengthening of currency support, China’s economic recovery expected to regain momentum in the last quarter of this year. And will ease the cost pressures that small businesses are experiencing and support credit expansion.
Chen Xing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Zhongtai, said: “Policies and measures to stimulate credit growth may be introduced to ease the downward pressure on the economy. This will combined with the relief of temporary disturbances to help the economy gain a firm foothold in the fourth quarter.” .
Chen said that the window for China to ease monetary policy may not closed until the Fed raises the key interest rate. The looser monetary situation will reduce the financing burden of private small enterprises, reduce the pressure on them due to costs, and help stabilize employment.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics
The purchasing costs of Chinese manufacturers generally rose last month. In addition, more than 40% of small manufacturers surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics said they are facing multiple difficulties such as tight cash flow and high raw material costs.
The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that, despite the slowdown in production and demand levels. The manufacturing sector had contracted for the first time since February 2020 last month. It fell to 49.6 in September.
In addition, Caixin Media Group’s September PMI data was 50, higher than August’s 49.2, but it was the second lowest in 17 months.
Experts said that due to local COVID-19 cases,
Heavy rains, supply disruptions, high raw material costs and a slowdown in the real estate market. The lukewarm PMI reading reflects the increasing downward pressure on the Chinese economy in the third quarter.
However, Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Kingtrust International. Said that “the monetary policy in the fourth quarter will moderately increase efforts to stabilize economic growth.”
Wang said that the People’s Bank of China expected to introduce structural policy tools to promote green loans. May even lower the deposit reserve ratio again in the fourth quarter as it did in July. Lowering the deposit reserve ratio, that is, the ratio of reserves required by banks, is conducive to lowering market interest rates.
“The growth rate of loans and social financing in the fourth quarter will pick up slightly. This will support the stabilization of economic growth at the end of the year and early 2022,” Wang said.
Experts said that other factors will also support the economic expansion in the fourth quarter. Including faster fiscal spending and infrastructure investment. As well as the recovery of consumer spending as local COVID-19 cases brought under control.
Offline procurement and infrastructure investment respond to downward pressure. China’s economy expected to grow by 4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter. With an average growth rate of 5.2% in two years and 5% in the third quarter. A report from the Bank of China.